by Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

You might not have realized it given the technical consolidation in March, but Q1 2019 ended up giving the S&P 500 its best Q1 performance of the new millennium, and the best quarterly performance (of any quarter) since Q3 2009. Investors could be forgiven for thinking the powerful rally from Christmas Eve through February was nothing more than a proverbial “dead cat bounce,” given all the negative news about a global economic slowdown, the still-unresolved trade skirmish with China, a worsening Brexit, reductions to US corporate earnings estimates, and the Fed’s sudden about-face on rate hikes. But instead, stocks finished Q1 with a flourish and now appear to be poised to take another run at all-time highs. The S&P 500, for example, entered Q2 less than 4% below its all-time high.

Overall, we still enjoy low unemployment, rising wages, and strong consumer sentiment, as well as a supportive Fed (“Don’t fight the Fed!”) keeping rates “lower for longer” (and by extension, debt servicing expenses and discount rates for equity valuation) and maintaining $1.5 trillion in excess reserves in the financial system. Likewise, the ECB extended its pledge to keep rates at record lows, and China has returned to fiscal and monetary stimulus to revive its flagging growth stemming from the trade war. Meanwhile, Corporate America has been quietly posting record levels of dividends and share buybacks, as well as boosting its capital expenditures – which is likely to accelerate once a trade deal with China is signed (which just became more likely with the apparently-benign findings of the Mueller investigation). In addition, the bellwether semiconductor industry is presenting a more upbeat tone and an upturn from a cyclical bottom (due to temporary oversupply), while crude oil has broken out above overhead resistance at $60.

On the other hand, there is some understandable concern that US corporate earnings forecasts have been revised downward to flat or negative for the first couple of quarters of 2019. Of course, it would be preferable to see a continuation of the solid earnings growth and profitability of last year, but the good news is that revenue growth is projected to remain solid (at least 4.5% for all quarters), and then earnings is expected to return to a growth track in 2H2019. Moreover, the concurrent reduction in the discount rate (due to lower interest rates) is an offsetting factor for stock valuations.

All of this leads me to believe that economic conditions remain generally favorable for stocks. In addition, I think we may see upside surprises in Q1 and Q2 earnings announcements, especially given the low bar that has been reset. But it also may mean that investors will become more selective, with some stocks doing quite well even if the broad market indexes show only modest growth this year.

In this periodic update, I provide a market commentary, offer my technical analysis of the S&P 500, review Sabrient’s latest fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten US business sectors, and serve up some actionable ETF trading ideas. In summary, our sector rankings remain bullish and the technical picture suggests an imminent upside breakout, while the sector rotation model maintains its a bullish posture. Read on…

by Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

The first two months of 2019 have treated Sabrient’s portfolios quite well. After a disconcerting 3Q2018, in which small-cap and cyclicals-heavy portfolios badly trailed the broad market amid a fear-driven defensive rotation, followed by a dismal Q4 for all stocks, the dramatic V-bottom recovery has been led by those same forsaken small-mid caps and cyclical sectors. All of our 12 monthly all-cap Baker’s Dozen portfolios from 2018 have handily outperformed the S&P 500 benchmark since then, as fundamentals seem to matter once again to investors. Indeed, although valuations can become disconnected from fundamentals for a given stretch of time (whether too exuberant or too pessimistic), share prices eventually do reflect fundamentals. Indeed, it appears that institutional fund managers and corporate insiders alike have been scooping up shares of attractive-but-neglected companies from cyclical sectors and small-mid caps in what they evidently saw as a buying opportunity.

And why wouldn’t they? It seems clear that Q4 was unnecessarily weak, with the ugliest December since the Great Depression, selling off to valuations that seem more reflective of an imminent global recession and Treasury yields of 5%. But when you combine earnings beats and stable forward guidance with price declines – and supported by a de-escalation in the trade war with China and a more “patient and flexible” Federal Reserve – it appears that the worst might be behind us, as investors recognize the opportunity before them and pay less attention to the provocative news headlines and fearmongering commentators. Moreover, I expect to see a renewed appreciation for the art of active selection (rather than passive pure-beta vehicles). However, we must remain cognizant of 2018’s lesson that volatility is not dead, so let’s not be alarmed if and when we encounter bouts of it over the course of the year.

Looking ahead, economic conditions appear favorable for stocks, with low unemployment, rising wages, strong consumer sentiment, and solid GDP growth. Moreover, Q4 corporate earnings are still strong overall, with rising dividends, share buybacks at record levels, and rejuvenated capital investment. So, with the Fed on the sidelines and China desperately needing an end to the trade war, I would expect that any positive announcement in the trade negotiations will recharge the economy in supply-side fashion, as US companies further ramp up capital spending and restate guidance higher, enticing risk capital back into stocks (but again, not without bouts of volatility). This should then encourage investors to redouble their current risk-on rotation into high-quality stocks from cyclical sectors and small-mid caps that typically flourish in a growing economy – which bodes well for Sabrient’s growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) portfolios.

In this periodic update, I provide a market commentary, offer my technical analysis of the S&P 500, review Sabrient’s latest fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten US business sectors, and serve up some actionable ETF trading ideas. In summary, our sector rankings remain bullish, while the sector rotation model has returned to a bullish posture. Read on…

by Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

The secular bull market that began on March 9, 2009 in the wake of the Financial Crisis just passed its ninth anniversary last Friday, and as if to celebrate, stocks rallied big on the strong reports of jobs growth, total employment, and labor participation, while wage inflation remained modest. All in all, it was a lot of great news, but instead of selling off – as stocks have done in the past in a “good news means bad news” reaction, assuming the Fed would feel emboldened to raise rates more aggressively – stocks rallied strongly. This is a market of investors looking for reasons to buy rather than to sell, i.e., the bulls are still in charge.

Strong global fundamentals are firmly in place for the foreseeable future, while corporate earnings expectations continue to rise, inflation fears appear to have diminished, and the overall climate remains favorable for equities. After the February selloff was complete, extreme valuations had been reduced, and support levels had been tested, investors were ready to embrace good news – albeit with some renewed caution in the wake of the recent surge in volatility. As we all learned, volatility is not dead. VIX is an oscillator that always eventually mean-reverts. This will surely result in some deleveraging as well as perhaps some P/E compression from the run-up in valuations we saw in anticipation of the fiscal stimulus package.

In this periodic update, I provide a market commentary, offer my technical analysis of the S&P 500, review Sabrient’s latest fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten US business sectors, and serve up some actionable ETF trading ideas. In summary, our sector rankings still look bullish, while the sector rotation model regained its bullish bias during the recovery from the market correction and volatility surge. Read on....

by Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

The S&P 500 finished 2017 by completing an unusual feat. Not only was the index up +22% (total return), but every single month of the year saw positive performance on a total return basis, and in fact, the index is on a 14-month winning streak (Note: the previous record of 15 straight was set back in 1959!). So, as you might expect, volatility was historically low all year, with the VIX displaying an average daily closing value of 11 (versus a “fear threshold” of 15 and a “panic threshold” of 20). But some of 2017’s strength was due to expansion in valuation multiples in anticipation of tax reform and lower effective tax rates boosting existing earnings, not to mention incentives for repatriating overseas cash balances, expansion, and capex.

Sector correlations also remained low all year, while performance dispersion remained high, both of which are indications of a healthy market, as investors focus on fundamentals and pick their spots for investing – rather than just trade risk-on/risk-off based on the daily news headlines and focus on a narrow group of mega-cap technology firms (like 2015), or stay defensive (like 1H2016). And Sabrient’s fundamentals-based portfolios have thrived in this environment.

Now that the biggest tax overhaul in over 30 years is a reality, investors may do some waiting-and-watching regarding business behavior under the new rules and the impact on earnings, and there may be some normalization in valuation multiples. In other words, we may not see 20% gains in the S&P 500 during 2018, but I still expect a solidly positive year, albeit with some elevated volatility.

In this periodic update, I provide a market outlook, conduct a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s latest fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten US business sectors, and offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. In summary, our sector rankings still look bullish, while the sector rotation model also maintains its bullish bias. Read on....

by Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Stocks are rocketing to new highs almost every day. Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com (AMZN) saw his net worth exceed $100 billion. Bonds are still strong (and interest rates low). Real estate pricing is robust. DaVinci painting sells for $450 million. Bitcoin – having no intrinsic value other than a frenzy of speculative demand – trades above $11,000 (up from $1,000 on January 1), with surprising enthusiasm brewing among institutional investors, including some of the wealthiest and most successful, and with futures and derivatives on cryptocurrencies in the pipeline. (By the way, if you are afraid of a global internet crash disrupting your holdings, fear not, as there is a bitcoin satellite accessible by dish.)

Investors are desperately seeking the next hot area before it gets bid up. (Maybe marijuana stocks are next, in anticipation of broader legalization.) Indeed, central bank monetary policies have created significant asset inflation, with cheap money from around the globe burning a hole in investors’ pockets. So now it’s high time to invite to the party some of the huddled masses (who don’t have direct access to the Fed’s largesse) – through fiscal stimulus. We are already getting some of that in the form of regulatory reform, which the Administration has largely done on its own. But the eagerly anticipated big-hitter is tax reform, which requires the cooperation of Congress. And despite the Republicans’ inability to come to consensus on anything else, investors are already bidding up equities in anticipation of the House and Senate reconciling a tax bill that becomes law – so expect to see a big correction if it fails.

The promise of regulatory and tax reform have kept me positive all year on mid and small caps as the primary beneficiaries, and I remain so now more than ever. In addition, they offer a way to better leverage continued economic expansion and rising equity prices, particularly those that supply (or that seek to take away a small piece of a growing pie from) the dominant mega caps. Moreover, as the valuations for the mega-cap Technology names in particular grow ever more elevated, we are starting to see a passing of the baton to smaller players and other market segments that display more attractive forward valuation multiples.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s latest fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten US business sectors, and offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. In summary, our sector rankings still look bullish, while the sector rotation model also maintains its bullish bias. A steady and improving global growth outlook and a persistently low interest rate environment continues to foster low volatility and an appetite for risk assets. Read on....

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Stocks continue to hold up well, encouraged by improving global fundamentals and a solid Q1 corporate earnings season. However, at the moment most of the major US market indices are struggling at key psychological levels of technical resistance that have held before, including Dow at 21,000, S&P 500 at 2,400, and Russell 2000 at 1,400. Only the Tech-heavy NASDAQ seems utterly undeterred by the 6,100 level, after having no problem blasting through the 6,000 level with ease last month and setting record highs almost daily. Perhaps the supreme strength in Tech will be able to lead the broader market through this tough resistance level. Every time it appears stocks are on the verge of a major correction, they catch a bid at an important technical support level. In other words, cautious optimism remains the MO of investors – despite weighty geopolitical risks and, here at home, furious political fighting at a level of viciousness I didn’t think possible in the U.S.

There is simply no denying the building momentum in broad global economic expansion, and any success in implementing domestic fiscal stimulus will just add even more fuel to this burgeoning fire. That’s not to say that we won’t see a nasty selloff at some point this year, but I think such an occurrence would have a news-driven (or Black Swan) trigger, and likely would ultimately serve as a broad-based buying opportunity.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings still look bullish, while the sector rotation model has returned to a bullish bias even though stocks now struggle at strong psychological resistance levels.  Read more....

This seasonally weak time of the year has proven reliable once again. As I observed last week, the volatility index often hits a peak in October but has never hit a trough during this notorious month. Last week, I warned of more downside in stocks before any new highs are challenged. It was the type of week that tests investors’ bullish conviction, and it was way overdue.

Five years ago this month, the S&P 500 hit all-time high of 1576. It closed Wednesday at 1461. Can the market make a run at that all-time high? Well, the biggest threat at the moment to bullish sentiment is the Fiscal Cliff, but both presidential candidates have a plan for dealing with it, and Congress is unlikely to want to take the fall for defying the new President and sending the country back into recession.