The stock market rally off the February lows initially was led by the usual combination of short-covering, oversold bottom-feeding, and speculation (on “junk"). But then market action started showing signs of improving market breadth and a rotation back into higher quality companies -- the types of companies with characteristics Sabrient typically seeks in our GARP (growth at a reasonable price) selection process. It is notable that price action for the S&P 500 was very similar during 2015 to what occurred in 2011.

Q2 is well underway for the economy, while Q1 corporate earnings reporting season kicks into high gear this week. Although investors have pretty much written off the quarter as a stinker, they are eagerly anticipating forward guidance for the back half of the year. With the major indexes and underlying valuations sitting at lofty heights, investors are evidently pricing in improving fundamentals ahead, particularly here at home in the U.S.

Q1 turned out to be one for the ages, and after some extreme moves and bouts of volatility, stocks settled down and closed out the quarter with a flourish. After falling more than -10% from the start of the year until February 11, the S&P 500 was up +6.6% in March, up +13% since February 11, and finished Q1 slightly positive at +0.8% -- and it is up +206% since the depths of March 9, 2009.

For those investors who thought there might be a quick V-bottom recovery in the markets like we saw last October, they have been sorely disappointed. Last week, the Dow Industrials fell -3.2%, the S&P 500 large caps fell -3.4%, the Nasdaq was down -3.0%, and the Russell 2000 small caps dropped -2.3%.From a technical standpoint, most chartists agree that much damage has been done to the charts and the market seems quite vulnerable and likely to retest lows. Market breadth is poor. And from a fundamental standpoint, the list of concerns is long.

This seasonally weak time of the year has proven reliable once again. As I observed last week, the volatility index often hits a peak in October but has never hit a trough during this notorious month. Last week, I warned of more downside in stocks before any new highs are challenged. It was the type of week that tests investors’ bullish conviction, and it was way overdue.

Well, it’s official. The old adage about selling in May didn’t apply this year. Instead, larger-cap, higher-quality, and value-oriented stocks continued to lead the market higher. The S&P 500 gained +2.1% during the month and confirmed its tentative technical breakout from the prior Friday with steady progress last week. However, it was tepid at best during the holiday-shortened week, and a somewhat concerning ‘double-low’ confirmation -- i.e., on extremely low (and decreasing) volume and with a backdrop of persistently low volatility.

The first full week of the New Year was uneventful. There seems to be some trepidation among U.S. equity investors after such a strong finish to 2013. On Friday, the jobs report was disappointing, but investors quickly shook it off as nothing more than an anomaly given the prior trends and closed the week on a high note. Among the business sectors, the big winner last week was Healthcare, but Technology also showed signs of life.

Backed by positive economic announcements from the Empire Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production, along with much improved growth from Europe, the market broke its string of four losing sessions with the S&P gaining 0.6% and the recently weak Russell 2000 up a sturdy 1.2%. Virtually all sectors did well, led by Energy, Industrials and Financials.  Energy was up by more than 1%.

As most everyone expected, Congressional brinksmanship gave way to an eleventh hour agreement that will put the government back in business and raise the debt ceiling. However, it’s only a temporary measure that merely defers another knock-down/drag-out for a few months. The question is, how will investors react after an initial bullish burst of relief?

We are in the thick of earnings season, and so far the general trend has been as anticipated: modest if any top-line growth and more earnings beats than misses (albeit versus a low bar). But forward guidance has been the big decider on how the stock trades post-earnings, and the message has been decidedly mixed, as many companies have had to reduce guidance or otherwise failed to make the grade in other important growth metrics.