by Rachel Bradley
  Equity Analyst, Gradient Analytics LLC (a Sabrient Systems company)

“Every man hears only what he understands.” – Goethe

Often, details in the financial statements hold the key to understanding a company. Here at Gradient Analytics, we specialize in forensic accounting research and consulting, and our analysts stay up-to-date on changes in the regulatory landscape, including crucial updates to disclosure requirements. Normally, we focus research on areas that might tempt companies to “manage” or overstate earnings, either by pulling forward future revenues or pushing out current expenses. Layer on more complexity from changing reporting requirements and it becomes clearer how a vital piece to the puzzle might slip through the cracks.

Below, I cover three broad topics. First, effective January 1, 2020, the governing accounting boards updated the very definition of a business. This new definition has multiple implications for reporting, but my focus in this article is the impact on M&A transactions. Moreover, this year both the Financial Accounting Standards board (FASB) and the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) changed required disclosures for U.S. and international companies. Among other things, there is a new method for determining appropriate loan loss reserves, and there will soon be a requirement for companies to stop using Inter-Bank Offered Rates (IBOR) as reference rates, instead switching to Alternative Reference Rates (ARR). I describe these updates with four real-life examples of how they shape financial statements, with the potential to mislead investors. Read on….

Given all the geopolitical drama and worrisome news headlines – ranging from tensions with Russia and North Korea to “Brexit 2.0” and “Frexit” to uncertainties of Trump’s fiscal stimulus to the looming debt ceiling – it’s no wonder stocks have stalled for the past several weeks. Especially troubling is the notable underperformance since March 1 in small caps and transports. Nevertheless, economic fundamentals both globally and domestically are still solid. Global growth appears to be on a positive trend that could persist for the next couple of years, and Q1 earnings season should reflect impressive year-over-year corporate earnings growth, although not without its disappointments – as we already have seen in bellwethers like Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and International Business Machines (IBM).

I continue to like the prospects for US equities for the balance of the year. I expect breadth will be solid, correlations will stay low, and dispersion high such that risk assets continue to look attractive, including high-quality dividend payers and growth stocks, particularly small caps, which I think will ultimately outperform this year despite their recent weakness. All of this bodes well for stock-pickers.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings still look bullish, although the sector rotation model has, at least temporarily, moved to a neutral stance as the short-term technical picture has become cloudy. But after the pro-EU election results in France on Sunday, stocks may be ready for an upside breakout, no matter what Trump accomplishes in this final week of his first 100 days on the job.  Read on....

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Investors continue to be sanguine about the economy and are reluctant to lighten up on stocks, even as we enter the New Year on the heels of a big post-election run-up, perhaps for fear of missing out on continued upside. Rather than fearing the uncertainty of a new (and maverick) administration, they instead have an expectation of a more business-friendly environment, fiscal stimulus, and a desirably higher level of inflation under Trump and a Republican-controlled congress. Stimulus likely would include lower corporate and personal taxes, immediate expensing of capital investment (rather than depreciating over time), incentives to repatriate offshore-held cash, reduced regulatory burdens, and infrastructure spending programs. Longer term, we also might see more favorable international trade deals and a freer market for healthcare coverage. Even the Fed is finally admitting that monetary stimulus alone can’t do the trick.

As the New Year gets underway, the technical picture remains strong, as the Dow is gathering strength to challenge ominous psychological round-number resistance at 20,000 and market breadth is impressive, led by small caps and value stocks. I believe we have a favorable environment for US equities going forward – especially fundamentals-based portfolios, like Sabrient’s annual Baker’s Dozen.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings still look bullish, and the sector rotation model continues to suggest a bullish stance. Read on....

We are in the thick of earnings season, and so far the general trend has been as anticipated: modest if any top-line growth and more earnings beats than misses (albeit versus a low bar). But forward guidance has been the big decider on how the stock trades post-earnings, and the message has been decidedly mixed, as many companies have had to reduce guidance or otherwise failed to make the grade in other important growth metrics.

The market went through some gyrations on Wednesday in reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. He first defended continued quant easing by warning, “A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but also would carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery.” Stocks dutifully rallied and all major indexes hit new intraday highs.

Earnings reports on Wednesday from big banks like Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) were encouraging. And Apple (AAPL) got a much-needed boost from the top tech analysts. However, Goldman’s analysts tried to throw a wet blanket on the markets earlier this week with their expectation that earnings reports overall this year would be “uninspiring” and that equity returns this year likely will be only in the single digits.

With about six weeks to go until the U.S. Presidential election, we enter the critical month of October in which Romney will be using all means necessary to move the swing states like Ohio, Florida, and Colorado from blue to red. The latest polls show Obama leading in these states, but everyone—especially investors—knows that it can all change during this final stretch of debates, campaigning, interviews, and commercials.

Despite last week’s little rally, April showers have dampened market. While it didn’t build into a torrential downpour, it steadily showered investors with worse-than-expected economic data, including last week’s dreadful Durable Goods Report (-4.2% compared to last month’s +1.9%), continued but minor increases in initial jobless claims throughout April, and a disappointing initial Q1 estimate of GDP (+2.2% compared the previous quarter’s +3.0%).

Market Surges to 2-Month High--Why?

By David Brown, Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems

Banks are the Market's Ball-and-Chain

By David Brown, Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems