Some weeks when I write this article there is little new to talk about from the prior week. It’s always the Fed, global QE, China growth, election chatter, oil prices, etc. And then there are times like this in which there is so much happening that I don’t know where to start. Of course, the biggest market-moving news came the weekend before last when Paris was put face-to-face with the depths of human depravity and savagery. And yet the stock market responded with its best week of the year.

Even with many of the global issues pushed off the front page, eager bulls found yet another reason to keep the troops in the barracks. The only newsworthy items are related to corporate earnings reports, which have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bulls have taken their chips off the table until after Labor Day, while others have merely scaled back to scalping some trades. Either way, stocks appear destined to thrash about for the rest of the summer.

After posting record highs the previous week, stocks closed last week slightly down overall. But the major indexes held their psychological levels, including Dow at 18,000, S&P 500 at 2100, NASDAQ at 5,000, and Russell 2000 at 1200. Although the bulls continue to find reliable support levels nearby, strong overhead technical resistance and neutral-to-defensive rankings in our SectorCast fundamentals-based quant model continue to suggest that a major upside breakout is not quite imminent, although a selloff doesn’t seem to be in the cards, either.

Last week, the major indexes fell back below round-number thresholds that had taken a lot of effort to eclipse. There has been an ongoing ebb-and-flow of capital between risk-on and risk-off, including high sector correlations, which is far from ideal. But at the end of it all, the S&P 500 found itself right back on top of long-standing support and poised for a bounce, and Monday’s action proved yet again that bulls are determined to defend their long-standing uptrend line.

Despite a positive Factory Orders report of 1.8% compared to an expected 1.6% and last month’s drop of 0.5%, the market opened up briefly; however, light volume gave way to selling pressure caused by a slightly negative ISM Services Report of 53.0, less than last month’s 53.9 and an expected 54.8 reading. All major markets closed slightly lower, making for the third consecutive low-volume, negative market day to open 2014. 

Surprise!  The market roared ahead this morning with all three major domestic indices up at least 1.5%. The move was triggered by a weekend with little negative economic news domestically and globally.  Then this morning, an impressive increase in Consumer Confidence to 76.2, which was not only well above last month’s 68.1 and the projected 72.5 but also a 5-year high, provided investors something to cheer about.

Stocks have been on a one-way train all month long. Now, as we approach Groundhog Day, the market appears to be having its own version of it as the Dow faces 14,000 and the S&P 500 struggles at 1500. As investors peer out above these levels, will they collectively see their shadow and retreat to safety for the next six weeks? Or will they bravely march forward into the clear blue skies to challenge the all-time highs from 2007?

The S&P 500 held once again at the 1350 level, and a “Rush to Risk” ended the shortened week at 1409, up more than 3% for nearly all indices and sectors. Where do we go now?

Last week’s events moved the market in a positive direction.  ECB President Draghi did indeed get approval to implement his sterilized bonds to assist weaker European nations from defaulting on their sovereign debt.

After a nice pop last Friday and an aborted attempt to get it going again on Tuesday, stocks were down 3% for the week through Wednesday. Among the ten U.S. sector iShares, Energy (IYE) and Basic Materials (IYM) have led the market down this week. The “risk-off” movement has sent investors into the safety of the dollar and Treasuries at the expense of stocks and commodities.