Today’s market opened up a tad on positive action from Asian and European markets; however, the pangs of last week’s painful performance took hold and the S&P 500 fell as much as 0.7%.  Earnings and revenues for Caterpillar (CAT) were below estimates causing investors to recall flat to poor results from General Electric (GE), International Business Machines (IBM) and McDonalds (MCD) on Friday.  Then, shortly into today’s session, Existing Home Sales o

Market timing is tough duty. Even as stocks have risen inexorably and we all knew it couldn’t go up in a straight line, still picking tops is hard. You can be wrong for a long time, and either lose your shirt shorting the market, or miss out on big gains by staying out.

Editor’s note:  Overshadowing the turbulent market today were the two explosions near the finish line of the Boston Marathon. Our hearts go out to those injured, and the families of those killed.

China reported GDP at 7.7% year-over-year for the first quarter versus an expected 8%— and the markets toppled.  All Asian markets had a bad day; all European markets had a bad day; and all domestic markets opened sharply down.  Gold fell over 8% already.

How’s that for a Monday eye-opener?

Bulls have regained their footing and recruited some reinforcements, as the S&P 500 on Wednesday powered right through its 5.5-year intraday high of 1576 on increased trading volume to set a new record of 1589.

This week began on the same negative tone that last week ended on. There were no economic reports today, but an unexpected European problem surfaced as the Constitutional Court in Portugal ruled out a number of austerity measures that the Portuguese administration had implemented, pursuant to the requirements of the ECC, IMF and EC.  This creates a dilemma for both Portugal and the troika. 

Last week, I talked about the impressive strength this year in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, but it since has been hit by investors’ renewed worries about global economic growth and financial stability. Its fall has been led by weakness in the airlines.

With European markets closed for Easter on Monday and Asia soured by poor economic reports from both China and Japan, it was up to the domestic ISM report and the Construction Spending reports to give the market a boost.

The Dow Jones Transportation Index is up an impressive +16.7% year-to-date through Wednesday, as it runs interference for the broader Dow Industrials (up +10.8%) and tries to prod the bulls ahead.

The week started out well as insured depositors were spared in Cyprus, and that resonated well with investors.  Furthermore, last week’s domestic economic data was quite positive especially for housing.  The Philadelphia Fed Survey was much better than expected; Initial Jobless Claims remained in the low 300K area; and LEI were as expected.

Well, you gotta hand it to the bears; they are pulling out all stops in their effort to derail the bull train, just as the S&P 500 tries to eclipse its all-time high. This time they trotted out the tiny republic of Cyprus (pop. 1.1 million) and its battle with the EU over the terms of its financial bailout. Steal a big chunk of depositors’ accounts?