January was a good month for the market as the S&P 500 reached a new 5-year high at 1498, up about 5% for the month.  February has started strong, up yet another 1%. Mid-caps dominated the month along with Small-caps, but no style/cap did poorly.  For the month, the leading sectors were Healthcare, up a whopping 9%, as our forward looking SectorCast had predicted, along with Industrials, up about 8.5%, followed by Financials and Energy, up about 8%.

Stocks have been on a one-way train all month long. Now, as we approach Groundhog Day, the market appears to be having its own version of it as the Dow faces 14,000 and the S&P 500 struggles at 1500. As investors peer out above these levels, will they collectively see their shadow and retreat to safety for the next six weeks? Or will they bravely march forward into the clear blue skies to challenge the all-time highs from 2007?

We come into the week riding a new five-year high for the S&P 500 and eight consecutive positive trading sessions.  But a busy week lies ahead with a bevy of economic reports and a boatload of Q4 earnings.  So far we’ve only had a peek at the first couple economic reports, and they were mixed with Durable Goods riding transportation to beat an expected 1.7% increase (after last month’s 0.7% increase) with a solid 4.6% gain.  However Pending Home Sales

Earnings season is in full swing, and on balance, investors are liking what they hear. Tech leaders Google (GOOG) and IBM (IBM) got bought in truckloads after their fine earnings reports, although Apple (AAPL) disappointed after the close on Wednesday.

First and foremost, the week will be filled with important earning reports, along with forward guidance from most reporting companies.  Google (GOOG), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) kick off the week for the Technology sector after today’s market.  Delta Airlines (DAL) met its projected numbers and is being rewarded as we write with a 3.3% gain.  The Materials Sector (XLB) is doing well following strong earnings reports by Freep

Earnings reports on Wednesday from big banks like Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) were encouraging. And Apple (AAPL) got a much-needed boost from the top tech analysts. However, Goldman’s analysts tried to throw a wet blanket on the markets earlier this week with their expectation that earnings reports overall this year would be “uninspiring” and that equity returns this year likely will be only in the single digits.

Well, we fell, tumbled, leaped, jumped, or merely stepped off the fiscal cliff, and it’s too early to judge the extent of our injuries, if any.  What is clear, though, is that Congress kicked a bunch of cans down the road which creates a continuing struggle for a rational budget, a rational debt ceiling, a rational tax policy, and a rational healthcare plan.

Another earnings season is underway. I haven’t noticed much in the way of earnings pre-announcements (i.e., warnings), which is a positive sign.

Congress got its act together just enough to stave off the fiscal cliff. Unfortunately, they merely added a long “pirate plank” to the edge of the cliff, as spending was not addressed. So the country has stepped off the cliff and now we are “walking the plank,” albeit without the blindfold since we know when the debt ceiling and sequestration are scheduled to kick in.

Until today, the stock market had lost its year-end traction, and it is exclusively due to the unresolved Federal budget and the looming Fiscal Cliff and debt ceiling. Optimism among investors that something will certainly get done had fallen victim to political theater and the reality that our elected officials view compromise as a sure path to losing their next election.