This could prove to be one the most interesting market weeks of the year, assuming the market ever opens.  Talk about uncertainty!  We can add “Frankenstorm” to the litany of other uncertainties such as the election and its impact on a functional Congress and the ongoing concerns in Europe, Middle East, China, and Japan.

This could prove to be one the most interesting market weeks of the year, assuming the market ever opens.  Talk about uncertainty!  Add Frankenstorm to the litany of other uncertainties such as the election and its impact on a functional Congress, Europe, Middle East, China, and Japan.

Whoa, big fella. That’s what the newly vocal bears had to say to the overly aggressive bulls, as a slew of weak earnings reports put a damper on the party. Last week, it seemed that stocks were determined to rally even without traditional leadership from the Technology sector.

That’s been hard to figure lately.  Uncertainty has not eased.  Not in Europe.  Not in the Middle East. Not in China or Japan. Not in the U.S., with a dead-heat election battle and unknown future Congressional dynamics.  Companies overall continue to beat earnings, mostly, and miss on revenues.  Now there is a certainty: earnings cannot keep going up if revenues keep going down.

Five years ago this month, the S&P 500 hit all-time high of 1576. It closed Wednesday at 1461. Can the market make a run at that all-time high? Well, the biggest threat at the moment to bullish sentiment is the Fiscal Cliff, but both presidential candidates have a plan for dealing with it, and Congress is unlikely to want to take the fall for defying the new President and sending the country back into recession.

The coming week should reduce uncertainty, at least slightly, since we get a bevy of new economic data and 15% of the S&P 500 reports.  And maybe Spain will decide whether or not it needs help.  Furthermore, we will have the next-to-last Presidential debate tomorrow night. 

As earnings season gets underway, it has become clear that there is a disconnect between the bull market in stocks and the ability of the companies behind those stocks to generate any revenue growth in a weak global economy. Although U.S. companies have shown eleven consecutive quarters of year-over-year earnings growth, Wall Street analysts have continued to slash forward earnings estimates, and indeed it is reflected in Sabrient’s SectorCast model.

It is quite clear that the market wants good reports from the earnings announcements that begin this week. We make that judgment based on Friday’s weak close, despite a solid week of some of best economic news of the year that culminated with the drop in unemployment to 7.8% from the expected 8.2%.

With all the recent central bank actions (e.g., the Fed’s unlimited QE3, the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions, and the Bank of Japan’s ongoing initiatives), the expectation of infinite liquidity is now baked into stock prices. So, further movement will have to come from new catalysts, like good old-fashioned earnings growth.

Sabrient's chief market strategist, David Brown, was quoted in Myra P. Saefong's Market Snapshot article on Market Watch: Dow ends lower as focus shifts to earnings, Spain

"'Premarket bullishness' in equities, which had opened mostly higher, was 'likely due to expectations that Spain was ready to sign off on receiving bailout money as early as this weekend, but Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy denied that later in the day, reigniting investor concern about the region,' said David Brown, chief market strategist at Sabrient Systems. 'That state of uncertainty, of course, is exactly what the market hates.'"