Well, it’s official. The old adage about selling in May didn’t apply this year. Instead, larger-cap, higher-quality, and value-oriented stocks continued to lead the market higher. The S&P 500 gained +2.1% during the month and confirmed its tentative technical breakout from the prior Friday with steady progress last week. However, it was tepid at best during the holiday-shortened week, and a somewhat concerning ‘double-low’ confirmation -- i.e., on extremely low (and decreasing) volume and with a backdrop of persistently low volatility.
Stocks continue to hold up like troopers even though bulls have lost some traction, perhaps due to a combination of the summer doldrums and overbought technical conditions that have them biding time until the next setup for a run at new highs. To be sure, bears are AWOL and missing their opportunity to create some fear and ignite a correction.
After its long-awaiting breakout of the 1900 level the other week, the S&P 500 gained another +1.3% last week alone, but this double-low progression as I call it -- i.e., on extremely low volume and with persistently low volatility -- is worrisome.