Stocks saw elevated volume and volatility last week, and the 100-day simple moving average on the S&P 500 proved to be the proverbial line-in-the-sand for bullish investors. I opined last week that the market seemed to have sufficiently cycled back down to oversold territory, so with a little more technical consolidation and successful testing of nearby support levels, the next move higher could easily commence at any time. So, the question remains as to whether that was the big new buying opportunity, or whether more backing-and-filling is needed.

Now that’s what I’m talking about. I have been discussing the overbought technical conditions of the S&P 500 for some time and the need for a pullback to test bullish support levels. And as many commentators have suggested, the more time between pullbacks, the more severe is the action when it finally arrives. Bears had become very hungry after a prolonged hibernation. This week offered up a nasty pullback.

More unnerving conflicts around the globe have flared up, but as usual, U.S. equity investors have given it nary a yawn as they seem to have become pretty much numb to the steady stream of unwelcome news, particularly out of the Middle East. Now we enter the summer version of earnings season.

Rather than a Great Rotation from bonds into equities, the rotation instead has been from growth into value. Among the ten U.S. business sectors, uber-defensive sector Utilities is still the clear leader year-to-date, up more than +10%, followed by Energy and Healthcare. Healthcare and Materials were the leaders last week. Consumer Services/Discretionary remains the clear laggard YTD. Moreover, rather than bond prices falling, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen even further to 2.52%, further indicating a flight to safety.

Stock market bulls made a valiant effort to fight off another looming correction last week. The economy is showing strong signs of recovery, the Fed remains confident enough to continue its stimulus tapering, and attractive alternative investments to the U.S. stock market seem scarce. Yes, bulls are all dressed up for more fun times. However, the technical picture paints a different story, at least for the near term.

Although the large caps set new highs early on Friday, small caps and NASDAQ have not come close to their prior highs. Friday closed with extreme weakness across the board, and it was on high volume. The technical picture and our fundamentals-based sector rankings have both taken a bearish turn, so we might see more weakness ahead.

Stocks continue to consolidate just under their prior high, which is offering formidable resistance. Although many long-standing uncertainties have significantly subsided, others have arisen, including turmoil in a new global hot spot (Ukraine) and the disruptions to the economy caused by the unusually long and brutal winter experienced by most of the U.S.