Once again, stocks have shown some inkling of weakness. But every other time for almost three years running, the bears have failed to pile on and get a real correction in gear. Will this time be different?

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic.

More unnerving conflicts around the globe have flared up, but as usual, U.S. equity investors have given it nary a yawn as they seem to have become pretty much numb to the steady stream of unwelcome news, particularly out of the Middle East. Now we enter the summer version of earnings season.

Stock investors entered the Fourth of July holiday on a high note, pushing the Dow Jones Industrials Index above 17,000 and the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index above 21,000, and even pushing the S&P 500 to a smidge above the upper trend line of its long-standing bullish ascending channel that has been in place for nearly three years.

After its long-awaiting breakout of the 1900 level the other week, the S&P 500 gained another +1.3% last week alone, but this double-low progression as I call it -- i.e., on extremely low volume and with persistently low volatility -- is worrisome.

Last week the market (S&P 500) battled resistance at the 1100 mark as if it were in the yawning sand trap at #14 on Pebble Beach – and Tiger Woods can't help us out just now.

It was yet another week of hanging around the1100 mark with the S&P500. It's not that there weren't important developments during the week. The trade deficit narrowed much more than expected, and retail sales got a substantial boost in November. Retailers alone sold $314.1 billion of goods, 1.4% more than in October and 2.2% more than a year earlier.

Since the unemployment release of 10.2% on November 6, virtually all economic releases have been modestly positive and the late reporting companies have had strong results (including revenues) and strong guidance.  So why has the market been going up and down on a daily basis over the past week?

Last week, the market was very selective, with only Large-cap Growth in positive territory -- think Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Amazon (Nasdaq:  AMZN), and American Express (NYSE: AXP). All other cap/styles were negative -- and the smaller you were, the more you lost. In fact, this entire month the market has beat up on small-caps with its "the smaller you are, the more you lose" bias.

by David Brown, Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems

David Brown

The market spent the month of August in a fog of mixed and contradictory economic results, often moving up on negative news and down on positive news.  Last week was no exception, and it's doubtful whether we'll get any improved visibility this week, either.