Five years ago this month, the S&P 500 hit all-time high of 1576. It closed Wednesday at 1461. Can the market make a run at that all-time high? Well, the biggest threat at the moment to bullish sentiment is the Fiscal Cliff, but both presidential candidates have a plan for dealing with it, and Congress is unlikely to want to take the fall for defying the new President and sending the country back into recession.

The coming week should reduce uncertainty, at least slightly, since we get a bevy of new economic data and 15% of the S&P 500 reports.  And maybe Spain will decide whether or not it needs help.  Furthermore, we will have the next-to-last Presidential debate tomorrow night. 

As earnings season gets underway, it has become clear that there is a disconnect between the bull market in stocks and the ability of the companies behind those stocks to generate any revenue growth in a weak global economy. Although U.S. companies have shown eleven consecutive quarters of year-over-year earnings growth, Wall Street analysts have continued to slash forward earnings estimates, and indeed it is reflected in Sabrient’s SectorCast model.

It is quite clear that the market wants good reports from the earnings announcements that begin this week. We make that judgment based on Friday’s weak close, despite a solid week of some of best economic news of the year that culminated with the drop in unemployment to 7.8% from the expected 8.2%.

With all the recent central bank actions (e.g., the Fed’s unlimited QE3, the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions, and the Bank of Japan’s ongoing initiatives), the expectation of infinite liquidity is now baked into stock prices. So, further movement will have to come from new catalysts, like good old-fashioned earnings growth.

Sabrient's chief market strategist, David Brown, was quoted in Myra P. Saefong's Market Snapshot article on Market Watch: Dow ends lower as focus shifts to earnings, Spain

"'Premarket bullishness' in equities, which had opened mostly higher, was 'likely due to expectations that Spain was ready to sign off on receiving bailout money as early as this weekend, but Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy denied that later in the day, reigniting investor concern about the region,' said David Brown, chief market strategist at Sabrient Systems. 'That state of uncertainty, of course, is exactly what the market hates.'"

Given the market’s performance over the last month, we feel that investors should consider reducing the more speculative portions of their portfolio.

With about six weeks to go until the U.S. Presidential election, we enter the critical month of October in which Romney will be using all means necessary to move the swing states like Ohio, Florida, and Colorado from blue to red. The latest polls show Obama leading in these states, but everyone—especially investors—knows that it can all change during this final stretch of debates, campaigning, interviews, and commercials.

After two consecutive weeks of more than 200 basis points of growth in S&P 500 market prices, resulting from general enthusiasm over the stimulus decisions of the ECB, Fed, and Japanese Central Bank, the market took profits relatively quietly last week. Last week’s economic reports were generally flat.

See David's comments on Spain's bailout request and the expected U.S. GDP number this week in the MarketWatch article titled "U.S. housing data, Spain in spotlight next week."