It is fairly clear that what the market wants is a solution, or more likely, an entire truckload of solutions, to the issues that have polarized the globe. I hope you’ve noticed that the market passionately hates uncertainty!  The market’s behavior of the last few weeks speaks to this attitude.

Greece’s electorate has chosen to stay in the new world rather than retreat to the old. And the Federal Reserve has backed up its words regarding liquidity and accommodation to support economic recovery. That about sums up the latest news, which has helped the technical picture. Stocks have been able to break out of a holding pattern and continue the June rebound after a dismal May.

The market did rebound last week, but it’s not much to brag about. Large-cap Value led the style/caps, up a paltry 1.42%, while Mid-cap Value dropped a tad, down -0.11%. It’s worth noting that Large-cap Value led not only last week, but last month and the last 3 months (see market stats). While it hasn’t been that great over the past 3 months, it has been the best of the worst. 

During the month of May, the Dow Industrials managed only five positive days, but June has offered up some recovery so far. Despite the persistently negative news we are inundated with each day—creating real trepidation among investors—there are actually a lot of promising signs here in the U.S., and the technical picture seems to have entered a holding pattern as investors await signs of improving stability elsewhere.

The S&P 500 closed today at 1309, down well over 1%. The NASDAQ closed down nearly 2%.  In light of relative valuations and current global prospects for the past six months, the question begs an answer: Why?  Let’s begin with an overview of the results of the past week.

Greece, Spain, Italy. Eurozone. Austerity. For stock investors, it’s just more of the same—the same rollercoaster of hope and despair about any of a number of potential outcomes…without resolution. On Wednesday, stocks had their strongest one-day rally since December.

Today, the market sold off as much as a full percent before recovering to a slight loss at the close.  At midday, it was off more than 10% from its high in April despite the solid quarterly earnings added in Q1. Factory Orders (-0.6%) were well below the expected number (+0.1%), continuing a worrisome trend that began last week when every major economic number disappointed: Consumer Confidence, Initial Jobless Claims, GDP 1st qtr.

Last week, the spotlight of worry was back on Greece’s solvency. This week it is Spain’s turn again to spook us. Greece, Spain, and Italy are in economic disarray, and the prospect of growing their way out of trouble appears unlikely given the recessionary forces. Even emerging market darlings like Brazil, China, and India are struggling. Although U.S.

Last week was horrible, while today was quite good, albeit on low volume.  What happened?  Let’s review the facts.

Last week, the S&P 500 dropped over -4% to close Friday at the key support at 1295, off nearly -8% from its April high.  Mid-cap Growth was the worst style/cap, down -6.2%.  The best was Large-cap Value, off -4.3%.