Scott MartindaleEarnings season is now officially underway, but the Fed is still holding the limelight, as traders anxiously awaited on Wednesday the FOMC minutes from the June 18/19 meeting. Although several members are pushing to begin tapering off this fall on asset purchases (bonds and mortgage-backed securities), which spooked the markets, in fact it now appears that the controlling opinion is that the U.S.

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Scott MartindaleI suspect there is no greater example of “summer doldrums” than the week surrounding the Fourth of July, especially when the holiday falls mid-week. From my standpoint, I certainly have received my share of “out of office” auto-responses on emails. For bullish investors, this is usually a time for caution, as any apparently dominant psychology of the market can be misleading. For bearish traders, it’s hard to get much momentum going.

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Scott MartindaleThe world has been watching every peep, sniffle, or innuendo associated with any voting member of the FOMC. What is the future of the latest in their ongoing market manipulation, in which money is printed to buy bonds to hold down interest rates, spur corporate borrowing, and artificially inflate stocks? Lately, that’s all investors have cared about.

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Scott MartindaleStock investors are protecting gains and holding off on deploying cash as concerns abound about central banks, including the Federal Reserve, tapering off on their stimulus programs, i.e., money printing. Low-interest policies and quantitative easing have been the driving force for economic recovery while pushing return-hungry investors into equities by default.

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Scott MartindaleHere in Santa Barbara, we refer to the annual summer ritual of heavy marine layer engulfing the coastline for much of the day as the “June gloom.” It can be frustrating to beach-going visitors since there are otherwise no clouds, and the inland areas are brilliantly sunny.

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Scott MartindaleCentral banks reiterated their commitment to supporting the global economy, and US investors showed their approval. The central banks are clearly prepared to keep the liquidity flowing for now, austerity be damned. Such statements are music to investors’ ears.

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Scott MartindaleThe market went through some gyrations on Wednesday in reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. He first defended continued quant easing by warning, “A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but also would carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery.” Stocks dutifully rallied and all major indexes hit new intraday highs.

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Scott MartindaleIt seems that every Tuesday in 2013 since January 8 has been positive on the Dow. And this past Tuesday was no exception. Now that sounds like a trend to put money on -- buy the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) at the close each Monday and close out the position late on Tuesday.

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Scott MartindaleThe S&P 500 is up 14.5% year-to-date through Wednesday, and the defensive sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities have done even better. But so far in May, the leaders have been industrials, consumer discretionary, energy, materials, financial, and technology.

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Scott MartindaleStocks finished the month of April breaking to new highs, with the S&P 500 rising above 1597. But May Day selling put a temporary hold on the bullish celebration that will certainly occur if the S&P 500 can make a clean break above psychological resistance at 1600. Was May Day the start of the usual “Sell in May and go away” practice?

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