As Q1 of 2014 comes to an end, we can see that January was extremely weak, February gained it all back, and March treaded water. At this point, as we head into what has been the strongest month of the year over the past 20 years, signals are mixed, with a steadily recovering economy and bullish fundamental indicators mixed with neutral technical and some bearish sentiment indicators.

Last week I wrote about the market’s impressive run off the March 2009 V-bottom. But since then, the bottom has fallen out, led by the Technology sector. Those of you who read this column regularly know that I have been opining that the rally has been pretty much manufactured by the Fed and their quantitative easing initiatives, but more recently the signs of economic recovery have been taking shape without much inflation.

Today marks the two-year anniversary of the V-bottom that launched an impressive bull market. Since then, the SPY large cap is up about 95%, while MDY mid cap and IWM small cap are up about 135%. Leading sectors include Basic Materials, Industrials, and Financials, which are each up at least 150%. Pretty impressive.

This month marks the first time since July 1 that the first trading day of the month wasn’t an up day. That’s 8 months in a row of money pouring in on the first trading day. Furthermore, recall that July 1 marked a low for the SPY at 101.13 that ended a 2-month correction to the 13-month rally off the March 2009 V-bottom, and launched a new 8-month rally. Is the fun over now?

It’s a nice change of pace to talk about something other than the stock market’s persistent uptrend getting more and more overbought. This week has brought some excitement indeed. As I said the last two weeks, it will pay to be cautious with long positions because such a market can reverse and fall quite quickly.

Bulls on Wall Street continue to call the shots and have their way. Bears who dare try to venture out of hibernation are smacked back into the cave before they’ve barely seen the light of day. The unshakably bullish action and buy-the-dip mentality has many market observers wondering if it can be sustained, given the struggling economy, moribund housing market, rising food and energy prices, skyrocketing deficit, and persistent unemployment.

The market reeked of late-day manipulation today as a last-minute push managed to get the Dow back into positive territory, but the S&P500 and Nasdaq couldn’t quite make it. The bulls have staked out their claim and won’t allow anyone to spoil their party...and they have powerful friends.

The past few days have given us a wild ride in the markets, thanks primarily to unrest in the Middle East. After this extended run since December 1, I have been waiting for the market to decide between either pulling back to consolidate gains and find a strong support point from which to launch on a renewed bullish run ... losing critical support and turning bearish.

This market sees nothing but rainbows and butterflies ahead. No worries, no fears. Although backing and filling is a necessary aspect of a healthy bull market, history shows that it can go on for awhile without. Now that the Dow has touched 12,000 and the S&P 500 came within a whisker of 1300, perhaps the bulls will be ready for a much-needed respite.

The market posted a big red candle today. It was much overdue … and in fact needed for a healthy market. It simply cannot go up in a straight line and engender confidence among investors. Backing and filling is a necessary aspect of a healthy bull market.