Earnings season is in full swing, and on balance, investors are liking what they hear. Tech leaders Google (GOOG) and IBM (IBM) got bought in truckloads after their fine earnings reports, although Apple (AAPL) disappointed after the close on Wednesday.

Another earnings season is underway. I haven’t noticed much in the way of earnings pre-announcements (i.e., warnings), which is a positive sign.

The news has been dominated by the predictable on-and-off speculation about progress with Europe’s intractable debt crisis and the Fiscal Cliff here at home. With all the economic uncertainty, Wall Street analysts are struggling with their forward estimates for companies. Stocks have fluctuated accordingly, testing support and seeking catalysts.

That’s been hard to figure lately.  Uncertainty has not eased.  Not in Europe.  Not in the Middle East. Not in China or Japan. Not in the U.S., with a dead-heat election battle and unknown future Congressional dynamics.  Companies overall continue to beat earnings, mostly, and miss on revenues.  Now there is a certainty: earnings cannot keep going up if revenues keep going down.

Five years ago this month, the S&P 500 hit all-time high of 1576. It closed Wednesday at 1461. Can the market make a run at that all-time high? Well, the biggest threat at the moment to bullish sentiment is the Fiscal Cliff, but both presidential candidates have a plan for dealing with it, and Congress is unlikely to want to take the fall for defying the new President and sending the country back into recession.

The coming week should reduce uncertainty, at least slightly, since we get a bevy of new economic data and 15% of the S&P 500 reports.  And maybe Spain will decide whether or not it needs help.  Furthermore, we will have the next-to-last Presidential debate tomorrow night. 

As earnings season gets underway, it has become clear that there is a disconnect between the bull market in stocks and the ability of the companies behind those stocks to generate any revenue growth in a weak global economy. Although U.S. companies have shown eleven consecutive quarters of year-over-year earnings growth, Wall Street analysts have continued to slash forward earnings estimates, and indeed it is reflected in Sabrient’s SectorCast model.

With all the recent central bank actions (e.g., the Fed’s unlimited QE3, the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions, and the Bank of Japan’s ongoing initiatives), the expectation of infinite liquidity is now baked into stock prices. So, further movement will have to come from new catalysts, like good old-fashioned earnings growth.

With about six weeks to go until the U.S. Presidential election, we enter the critical month of October in which Romney will be using all means necessary to move the swing states like Ohio, Florida, and Colorado from blue to red. The latest polls show Obama leading in these states, but everyone—especially investors—knows that it can all change during this final stretch of debates, campaigning, interviews, and commercials.

Portfolio managers returning from their summer holidays have apparently liked what they’ve heard from the central banks. Although total volume remains modest, U.S. stock indexes have hit new highs. The S&P 500 finally busted out of its 3-month-long bullish rising channel.