Last week, I talked about the impressive strength this year in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, but it since has been hit by investors’ renewed worries about global economic growth and financial stability. Its fall has been led by weakness in the airlines.
The Dow Jones Transportation Index is up an impressive +16.7% year-to-date through Wednesday, as it runs interference for the broader Dow Industrials (up +10.8%) and tries to prod the bulls ahead.
Well, you gotta hand it to the bears; they are pulling out all stops in their effort to derail the bull train, just as the S&P 500 tries to eclipse its all-time high. This time they trotted out the tiny republic of Cyprus (pop. 1.1 million) and its battle with the EU over the terms of its financial bailout. Steal a big chunk of depositors’ accounts?
I was watching the ABC World News the other evening, and I was struck by the commercials they ran. The target demographic is obviously an older crowd (and since I was watching, I guess that includes me). Advertised products within the short 30-minute newscast addressed a variety of age-related ailments like low-T, erectile dysfunction, overactive bladder, constipation, hemorrhoids, and loose dentures.
Cash flush investors who have been waiting for a buying opportunity must be feeling like the guy standing outside the sold-out concert looking for someone willing to sell him a ticket. Stocks just won’t pull back much, despite a huge wall of worry that one might expect would put some quicksand under the bulls’ feet.
For most of 2013 thus far, the market has been on a steady rise without volatility within a narrow channel. Bulls have been looking to recruit reinforcements for their assault on the all-time highs on the S&P 500 large caps and Dow Jones blue chips, after already taking out the all-time highs on the Russell 2000 small caps and S&P 400 mid caps.
Last week, the Dow and S&P 500 large caps hit five-year highs, the Russell 2000 small caps and the S&P 400 mid-caps made all-time highs, and the Nasdaq recorded a 12-year closing high. But some investors are evidently showing concern that it has all come too far too fast.
Stocks are inching ever forward, but investors are showing plenty of indecisiveness along the way. They might be suffering from acrophobia—fear of heights. Their trepidation is reflected not only in the ongoing price consolidation as the major market averages struggle at long-term highs, but also in the extremely low trading volume.
Well, Punxsutawney Phil didn’t see his shadow on Saturday, so the weather forecast is positive. However, investors having their own version of Groundhog Day at Dow 14,000 and S&P500 1500 are still trying to decide whether to retreat to safety in anticipation of a severe market pullback. Weakness on Tuesday seemed like the start of a correction, but alas the bulls would have none of that.
Stocks have been on a one-way train all month long. Now, as we approach Groundhog Day, the market appears to be having its own version of it as the Dow faces 14,000 and the S&P 500 struggles at 1500. As investors peer out above these levels, will they collectively see their shadow and retreat to safety for the next six weeks? Or will they bravely march forward into the clear blue skies to challenge the all-time highs from 2007?
Last week, I talked about the impressive strength this year in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, but it since has been hit by investors’ renewed worries about global economic growth and financial stability. Its fall has been led by weakness in the airlines.