The market continues to creep upward, with the short-term trend clearly positive albeit on quite low volume.  The S&P 500 remains above its 50-day and 200-day moving average, but as we head into the current week, our concern is about conviction within the marketplace.  The ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) finally gave a positive uptick last week, but it would be early to conclude that we’re on a strong uptrend.

The SPY finished the month of July up a robust +7%, and then started the first day of August by tacking on another +2% gain. All market indexes appeared a bit stretched from the mean and ready to pullback today, but the bulls fought on mightily to keep the day’s loss minor.

Our thundering herd of baby bulls struggled mightily last week to stay clear of that gloomy channel, and at one time the S&P 500 threatened to cross back under its 50-day moving average, but it ended the week about where it started.

The market continues to look strong and resilient. Whether the news, economic reports, and earnings announcements are bad or good, the market has been absorbing the blows or chasing the momentum like a champion. Now it is struggling with various resistance levels from moving averages and chart formations, but continuing to hold up in this low-trading-volume environment.

The abundance of news last week -- most with a positive slant -- finally boosted the S&P 500 out of the Channel of Gloom in which it was mired for so long. Not only did the S&P 500 break out of the channel, but it is now threatening the 200-day moving average, having surpassed the 50-day MA last week.

It is surely understandable if an investor is afraid to participate in this choppy stock market. Bounces from support are met with selloffs from resistance. In 2008, we got a strong downtrend, and in 2009, we got a strong uptrend, but this year has been difficult to gauge.

Tipping Point Deja Vu

by David Brown, Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems

Amazingly, the market has given us four major trend changes in the past month alone, which apparently hasn't happened with such frequency in over 10 years. Last week, the market was staring into the proverbial abyss as the S&P 500 incurred the dreaded “death cross,” in which the 50-day moving average of price crossed down through the longer-term 200-day moving average.

One hesitates to put too much emphasis on any given week when discussing market trends, but this week could be the tipping point for the current market. Despite the S&P 500's 50-point gain last week on virtually no news at all, the fact remains that it is still more than 12% below the April 23rd high of 1217 and still has not broken out of the downward channel that began on April 26.

I hope you enjoyed the Fourth of July fireworks on Sunday, because there might not be much to celebrate on Wall Street this week.

Last week we warned that if most of the impending economic releases were negative, the market would likely fall worse than it did the week before.  And that’s what happened.  In fact, it dropped approximately twice as much as the week before. (It doesn’t feel so good to be right.)