Stocks are finally showing a willingness to ease up on their bull run, if for no other reasons than to do some much-needed technical consolidation and to digest the latest news. You might say they are pausing to take in the view from these lofty heights—especially the Nasdaq, which hasn’t seen this level since 2000...when it was moving rapidly in the other direction.

The stock market is behaving extremely well from a technical perspective. And why not? The world seems stable enough to give investors the confidence to maintain a “risk-on” allocation. Sure, there is still plenty to worry about. But more and more, investors are growing bolder. The Dow is at its highest level since 2008 and wants to challenge 13,000. The Nasdaq is at its highest level since 2000. 

The stock market has continued its bullish ways—thanks to indications of an improving U.S. economy and diminished concerns about Europe’s economic stability. The S&P 500 finished January up +4.4%, while the “riskier” Nasdaq finished the month up 8.0% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 7.7%. Yes, investors are boldly embracing the “risk on” trade. 

Bulls found fresh legs on Wednesday with support from the FOMC, despite the reluctance of Greece to “play ball” with its creditors, which has been depressing investor sentiment. Everyone seems to agree that the unresolved debt crisis in Europe is the main thing holding back global economic recovery and the snorting stock market bulls. To be sure, the situation in Europe is not good.

The “risk-on” trade seems to be hanging tough as more than a passing fad. Risk-off means that money is flowing into safe havens like U.S. Treasuries and solid currencies like the U.S. dollar and Swiss franc; whereas risk-on means that money is flowing into more speculative assets like equities, commodities, emerging markets, and higher yielding currencies.

Stocks are maintaining their bullish sentiment for the New Year. The proverbial “wall of worry” remains high and intimidating, but bulls traditionally prefer it this way. It makes the less optimistic investors keep a store of cash, and it keeps the bears pumping money into short positions—both of which can provide fresh fuel for stocks when idle cash gets put to work and the bears start covering their shorts.

After closing 2011 at exactly the same level it closed out 2010, the S&P 500 came blasting out of the gate with guns a-blazing on Tuesday to celebrate the New Year. It was a welcome sight to scores of nervous investors.

Bulls are trying mightily to ensure the Santa rally holds into year-end and close the year in the positive, as all eyes remain on Europe.

Bah! Humbug!

By David Brown, Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems