Utilities and Healthcare are trying to hold up the market this week as Financial, Industrial, Basic Materials, and Technology have led the way down. There appears to be little optimism for the banks, given the worsening housing market and imminent end of QE2 (no more free money). Ciena (CIEN) and SINA (SINA) were big losers in Tech-land today. But it is beaten-down Technology that is rising in Sabrient’s SectorCast rankings.
Basic Materials and Energy have been the leading sectors so far this week, as the overall market continues to seek support, as well as leadership for moving higher. But the dollar seems determined to spoil the party.
Basic Materials and Energy sectors returned to a leadership role today as the stock market looked to bounce from its recent doldrums. Both sectors advanced about 2%. However, it is Healthcare that has remained consistently strong. And in fact, it is Healthcare that has maintained a steadily strong score in Sabrient’s quantitative SectorCast model.
We have all heard the old Wall Street adage to “sell in May and go away” until October, as the market historically underperforms in the May-September timeframe. And indeed, after the “bin Laden gap up” at the open on Monday, stocks quickly turned tail. Today, the selling intensified following the disappointing ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for April, with Energy and Materials the hardest hit.
For the first time in the 98-year history of the Federal Reserve, its chairman held a news conference after its FOMC policy meeting. So, what was the big news? QE2 will end in June as planned, but as I speculated last week, they will keep the balance sheet steady by continuing to reinvest maturing assets into the debt markets. They will also keep the Fed Feds Rate in the 0.00-0.25% range. Both of these are stimulative to the economy.
In my weekend analysis, I talked about the possibility of a bullish reverse head-and-shoulders formation for the stock market. And after allowing for a brief panic on Monday, the market has been quite strong this week and appears to be confirming the bullish pattern.
