By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

As Q3 came to a close, investors continued to show cautious optimism and the S&P 500 posted a gain for the fourth straight quarter. After a lengthy period of time in which markets were buffeted by the daily news about oil prices, jobs reports, Fed rate hike intentions, China growth, Brexit, US economic expansion/contraction, Zika virus, and ISIS inspired attacks, the focus has switched back to improving fundamentals.

In particular, as Q3 earnings reporting season gets started, there remains a broad expectation that the corporate “earnings recession” has bottomed and that companies will start showing better earnings growth (hopefully driven by revenue growth), particularly in the beaten-down market segments like Energy and Materials. I think the only thing holding back stocks right now is investor uncertainty about market reaction to two things: a potential Trump presidential victory and to the next Fed rate hike (expected on December 14). From a technical standpoint, the spring is coiling tightly for big move.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings look relatively bullish, although the sector rotation model still suggests a neutral stance. Read more about Sector Detector: Stocks coil as Q3 earnings take the stage and election campaigns heat up

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Overall, it appears that the stock market continues to focus more on improving fundamentals than on the daily news. We continue to see improved market breadth, low volatility, lower sector correlations, and capital flows into higher quality companies with solid fundamentals, attractive valuations, good earnings quality, and strong market position. Small and mid-caps have been leading market segments, especially those from the Energy sector. Among large caps, Technology and Financial sectors have been strong during Q3, while defensive sectors Utilities and Telecom have pulled back across all market caps after showing inordinate strength for much of the year (although they still remain strong YTD).

All of this is bullish – and is illustrative of the healthy broadening of the market. Although some traders appear to be taking some chips off the table in deference to September’s notoriety as the worst performing month of the year, I think the path of least resistance for stocks is to the upside.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Read more about Sector Detector: Healthcare struggles under election campaign attacks, while Tech, Financial, and Small Caps lead an overall bullish market

The Wall of Worry just keeps adding more bricks. Although there has been much talk about the impact of low oil prices on the U.S. high yield debt market and by extension the U.S. banks that did the lending, the bigger worry now is the stability of the European banking system. It is like 2011 all over again. Also, there continue to be signs of an insidious corporate “earnings recession.” Such headlines add to the steady stream of “worry bricks” that have so confounded disciplined fundamental investors for at least the past seven months or so. Read more about Sector Detector: Stocks rally off long-term support levels while the Wall of Worry rises ever higher

We all know the big news stories that have kept both corporate leaders and investors in a semi-state of paralysis. They involve the future of Greece in the Eurozone, China’s growth and stock market stability, and the Federal Reserve’s plan for gradually normalizing the fed funds rate. I noted in my article last week that the technical picture appeared to be firming up for the bulls as the 200-day moving average kicked in with solid support and traders seemed to be doing an orderly retreat-and-retrench rather than panic-selling. Read more about Sector Detector: Stocks break out from their holding pattern as global uncertainties begin to settle out

As widely expected, the New Year has begun with plenty of volatility on high trading volume, as investors fear more than just a mild correction to start out the year. Despite the strong fundamentals here in the U.S., there are plenty of dangers around the rest of the world, and many fear that our cozy comfort at home simply cannot remain insulated for much longer. Read more about Sector Detector: New Year kicks off with new fears to keep investors on edge

Scott MartindaleStocks continue to consolidate just under their prior high, which is offering formidable resistance. Although many long-standing uncertainties have significantly subsided, others have arisen, including turmoil in a new global hot spot (Ukraine) and the disruptions to the economy caused by the unusually long and brutal winter experienced by most of the U.S. Read more about Healthcare, Utilities, and Tech lead as market confronts resistance

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Scott MartindaleEarnings season is now officially underway, but the Fed is still holding the limelight, as traders anxiously awaited on Wednesday the FOMC minutes from the June 18/19 meeting. Although several members are pushing to begin tapering off this fall on asset purchases (bonds and mortgage-backed securities), which spooked the markets, in fact it now appears that the controlling opinion is that the U.S. Read more about Sector Detector: Earnings take center stage as the Fed returns to the fold

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