Signs that inflation may be waning

  by Scott Martindale
  President & CEO, Sabrient Systems LLC

Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell sounded quite hawkish at his brief Jackson Hole speech on Friday, and investors were spooked. But keep in mind, he will be reacting to the inflation data as it comes. And although the CPI hit 40-year high of 9.1% YoY in June, I see plenty of signs that inflation is in retreat. Many commentators have been attempting to predict the future of inflation and the economy by making comparisons with prior periods of high inflation. But what makes today’s situation unique is the impact of artificial supply chain disruption due to forced lockdowns rather than economic forces. Thus, I believe the Fed has been trying to “buy time” to allow supply chains to mend by using hawkish rhetoric and creating as much demand destruction as possible – without overtly crushing the economy into recession (a la Paul Volcker). Here are some of the signs that inflationary pressures are receding:

1. CPI began to flatten out in July after 16 straight months of increases, coming in at 8.5% YoY (after topping out at 9.1% in June).
    
2. Business inventories have risen sharply (according to the St. Louis Fed), which implies disinflationary pressure on finished goods, and the important inventory/sales ratio is making its way back to pre-pandemic levels. Wholesale prices and import prices both came in better than predicted, and commodity prices, shipping rates, and home prices are all either stabilizing or falling.
    
3. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index excluding food and energy – has slowed each month since its February peak, falling from 5.3% to 4.7%.
    
4. July PPI data fell 0.5%, which was the first decline in producer prices since pre-pandemic. Historically, large moves to negative PPI readings like this have led to significantly lower inflation over subsequent months.
    
5. The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) has been falling rapidly since the start of the year.
    
6. The St. Louis Fed’s 5-year Breakeven Inflation Rate has fallen to 2.73%, and the 5-year/5-year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate is only 2.41%. Also, the University of Michigan Inflation Expectations survey of consumers, median expected price change, are at 4.8% for the next 1 year and 2.9% for the next 5 years.
    
7. Gold prices continue to languish due to the ultra-strong dollar and expectations for rising real interest rates (nominal rate minus inflation). Historically, gold thrives when inflation rises and real interest rates fall, leading to a weaker dollar, which makes gold attractive as a store of value. But there has been no rush among investors to hold gold.

Of course, Fed monetary policy can only impact demand; it has no impact on disrupted global supply chains. The Fed can only withdraw stimulus by unwinding QE (i.e., letting bonds on its balance sheet mature and/or selling some into the market) and raising interest rates to the “neutral rate.” In fact, I believe we are close to that elusive neutral rate, given how sensitive the highly leveraged US and global economies (consumers, businesses, and governments) have become to debt financing costs. Moreover, the Fed must ensure sufficient global supply of dollars in a world hungry for them (85% of foreign exchange transactions, 60% of foreign exchange reserves, and 50% of cross-border loans and international debt are in US dollars.) All ears will be on the September FOMC meeting on 9/21, when the Fed may announce a final rate hike followed by language indicating that it will “wait & see” how conditions develop going forward (in spite of the tone of Powell's written speech on Friday). 

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