The UK government's budget announcement will need to show fiscal discipline to satisfy gilt investors, and while our baseline sees enough credibility to nudge the risk premium in gilt yields lower, we are well aware of significant upside risks too.

A simple-minded interpretation of the Taylor rule suggests a decrease in the policy rate is not warranted, using the output gap, and perhaps not warranted using the unemployment gap.

Nvidia Corp. came in with yet another earnings beat, including in heavily scrutinized data center sales and gross margin. The beat sent shockwaves through cold November markets