Several updated nowcasts for US economic activity in the fourth quarter have been revised sharply higher recently, but the median estimate barely changed, based on several data points.

Consumption leads employment, and as I reiterated yesterday real per capita retail sales has a history as a long leading indicator.

A report coming from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that average salaries, both including and excluding bonuses, rose by 5.2% per year in the three months to October.