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The euro came under pressure on Tuesday after the German ZEW Survey’s Economic Growth Expectations Index for September rose more than expected and hit an 11-month low.

CPI data shows a decline in inflation, leading to expectations of a Fed rate cut.

Wheat is currently experiencing a pullback after the rallies seen in August and early September. Since hitting a low in July 2024, the commodity has rallied over 11%.

Don’t be fooled by the latest rise in UK services inflation. It’s largely down to base effects and faster price growth in categories the Bank of England is less bothered about.

In this update we review the recent price action in BTCUSD and identify high probability price patterns and price objectives ahead of the FOMC decision today.

The first thing I see is that we touched the 200 Day EMA during the trading session, only to turn around and show signs of weakness again.

UK inflation steady at 2.2% in August, services prices rise to 5.6%. Bank of England expected to hold interest rates amid price pressures. Government acknowledges economic strain on millions of UK families.

USD/JPY slides below 142.00 as firm speculation for Fed large interest rate cuts weighs on the US Dollar. Market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 bps this year.

Canada’s inflation fell by 0.2% monthly, surprising economists who had forecast no change. Data revealed that US retail sales unexpectedly increased by 0.1%. The likelihood of a 50-bps Fed rate cut remains high at 63%.

The employment situation for U.S. teens significantly worsened in August 2024 with both the number and percentage of working teens within the Age 16-19 population dropping to their lowest level since 2021.

Today’s Fed decision will be getting that much more attention given the fact that there is so much uncertainty around what the Fed will actually do.

The impulsive structure indicates that further upward progression is likely, with Orange Wave 2 expected to follow once Orange Wave 1 concludes.

The USD/JPY pair is currently stabilising around 141.44 on Wednesday, following a brief strengthening of the US dollar which impacted the yen negatively the previous day. Despite this, the overarching downward trend for the pair persists.

GBP/JPY recovers early lost ground following the release of the UK consumer inflation figures. The headline UK CPI held steady at 2.2%, while the core CPI accelerated to the 3.6% YoY rate.

As the Fed deliberates, this is the classic moment of calm before the storm.

AUDNZD Is Turning From Resistance, as we see a strong decline that can resume lower after a pullback with a potential Head&Shoulders pattern.

The EURGBP Elliott Wave analysis on the daily chart points to the market being in a counter-trend phase, characterized by impulsive movement.

During the trading session on Tuesday, we have seen the euro rally quite a bit against the Japanese yen, as it looks like we are trying to do everything we can to form some type of bottom in this market.

Long China equities setting up as best contrarian trade (currently one of most crowded shorts):