Scott MartindaleBy Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Investors continue to be sanguine about the economy and are reluctant to lighten up on stocks, even as we enter the New Year on the heels of a big post-election run-up, perhaps for fear of missing out on continued upside. Rather than fearing the uncertainty of a new (and maverick) administration, they instead have an expectation of a more business-friendly environment, fiscal stimulus, and a desirably higher level of inflation under Trump and a Republican-controlled congress. Stimulus likely would include lower corporate and personal taxes, immediate expensing of capital investment (rather than depreciating over time), incentives to repatriate offshore-held cash, reduced regulatory burdens, and infrastructure spending programs. Longer term, we also might see more favorable international trade deals and a freer market for healthcare coverage. Even the Fed is finally admitting that monetary stimulus alone can’t do the trick.

As the New Year gets underway, the technical picture remains strong, as the Dow is gathering strength to challenge ominous psychological round-number resistance at 20,000 and market breadth is impressive, led by small caps and value stocks. I believe we have a favorable environment for US equities going forward – especially fundamentals-based portfolios, like Sabrient’s annual Baker’s Dozen.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings still look bullish, and the sector rotation model continues to suggest a bullish stance. Read on.... Read more about Sector Detector: New Year commences with a bullish optimism, but will it last?

Scott MartindaleWe are in the thick of earnings season, and so far the general trend has been as anticipated: modest if any top-line growth and more earnings beats than misses (albeit versus a low bar). But forward guidance has been the big decider on how the stock trades post-earnings, and the message has been decidedly mixed, as many companies have had to reduce guidance or otherwise failed to make the grade in other important growth metrics. Read more about Sector Detector: Mixed messages abound among earnings reports

smartindale / Tag: iShares, sectors, ETF, SPY, VIX, IWM, EEM, AAPL, WDC, FB, V, MCD, NFLX, CVLT, SBNY, GS, iyw, IYF, IYE, IYK, IYJ, IYH, IYC, IYZ, IDU, IYM / 0 Comments

Scott MartindaleThe market went through some gyrations on Wednesday in reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. He first defended continued quant easing by warning, “A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but also would carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery.” Stocks dutifully rallied and all major indexes hit new intraday highs. Read more about Sector Detector: Fed tries to refill bulls’ fuel tank as cyclicals lead

smartindale / Tag: ETF, sectors, iShares, SPY, VIX, GS, HPQ, IYK, IYF, iyw, IYH, IYC, IYM, IYJ, IYE, IDU, IYZ, MIDD, BG, MKL, PRAA / 0 Comments

Earnings reports on Wednesday from big banks like Goldman Sachs (Scott MartindaleGS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) were encouraging. And Apple (AAPL) got a much-needed boost from the top tech analysts. However, Goldman’s analysts tried to throw a wet blanket on the markets earlier this week with their expectation that earnings reports overall this year would be “uninspiring” and that equity returns this year likely will be only in the single digits. Read more about Sector Detector: Bulls resist giving up any ground

smartindale / Tag: iShares, sectors, ETF, IYH, iyw, IYK, IYM, IYJ, IYE, IYF, IYZ, IDU, IYC, AAPL, GS, JPM, DVA, COO, CTSH, IT, SPY, VIX, DEF, NFO, KNOW, CSCO, FCX / 0 Comments

Scott MartindaleWith about six weeks to go until the U.S. Presidential election, we enter the critical month of October in which Romney will be using all means necessary to move the swing states like Ohio, Florida, and Colorado from blue to red. The latest polls show Obama leading in these states, but everyone—especially investors—knows that it can all change during this final stretch of debates, campaigning, interviews, and commercials. Read more about Sector Detector: Investors Watch Romney’s Hunt for Red October

smartindale / Tag: ETF, sectors, iShares, VIX, SPY, iyw, IYF, IYH, IYK, IYE, IYJ, IYM, IYC, IYZ, IDU, GS, RNR, GOOG, RAX / 0 Comments

Despite last week’s little rally, April showers have dampened market. While it didn’t build into a torrential downpour, it steadily showered investors with worse-than-expected economic data, including last week’s dreadful Durable Goods Report (-4.2% compared to last month’s +1.9%), continued but minor increases in initial jobless claims throughout April, and a disappointing initial Q1 estimate of GDP (+2.2% compared the previous quarter’s +3.0%). Read more about What the Market Wants: April Showers Dampen Market Rally

david / Tag: AAPL, AGCO, EWP, GOOG, GS, GTE, IEV, ORCL, PAAS, STX, VGK / 0 Comments
david / Tag: AAPL, BAC, C, CAT, CI, GS, HS, HUM, JAZZ, ORCL, RNOW, SNX, VXX, WFC, WNR / 0 Comments

ETF Periscope: Wall Street Not Ready to Kick the Volatility Habit Any Time Soon

“When written in Chinese, the word "crisis" is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity.”  --  John F. Kennedy

Is a September swoon in the cards? It all depends on how Wall Street plays its next hand, which just may have one too many jokers in it. Read more about ETF Periscope: Wall Street Not Ready to Kick the Volatility Habit Any Time Soon

daniel / Tag: BAC, Bank of America, BERNANKE, C, Citigroup DJIA, ETF, FAS, FED, FHFA, FOMC, Goldman Sachs, GS, IYH, JP Morgan, JPM, SPX / 0 Comments

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